Walt Disney Company (DIS)
The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American diversified multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios complex in Burbank, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.33% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $84.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (1.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.28% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.3802
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0946
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0946) – 1
= 45.99%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y613)
= Exp(a + b × X613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3802 + 0.0001 × 886 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.6955)
= $109.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y613)
= Exp(a + b × X613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3802 + 0.0001 × 886 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.3171)
= $74.97
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3802 + 0.0001 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.8267)
= $124.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3802 + 0.0001 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0946)
= Exp(4.4484)
= $85.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.33% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $84.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (1.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 17, 2025
a = 11.4515
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0452
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0452) – 1
= 19.81%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4515 + -0.0038 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.8678)
= $130.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4515 + -0.0038 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.6870)
= $108.53
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4515 + -0.0038 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.5615)
= $95.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4515 + -0.0038 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.3807)
= $79.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.28% per annum.
- DIS price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.