Stock Price Trends

Walt Disney Company (DIS)

The Walt Disney Company, commonly known as Disney, is an American diversified multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate headquartered at the Walt Disney Studios complex in Burbank, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.27% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $112.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.77% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 4.0077

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0910

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0910) – 1
= 43.91%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0077 + 0.0004 × 1,200 + 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(4.6283)
= $102.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0077 + 0.0004 × 1,200 – 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(4.2643)
= $71.11

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0077 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(4.8563)
= $128.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0077 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0910)
= Exp(4.4923)
= $89.33

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.27% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $112.16 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 1.4326

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0456

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.00%

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4326 + 0.0018 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.5355)
= $93.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4326 + 0.0018 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.3531)
= $77.72

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4326 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.8551)
= $128.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4326 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.6727)
= $106.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 94.77% per annum.
  • DIS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.