Stock Price Trends

Terex Corporation (TEX)

Terex Corporation manufactures and sells aerial work platforms and materials processing machinery worldwide. The company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.83% per annum.
  • TEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $51.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.93% per annum.
  • TEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.1008

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0781

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -1.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0781) – 1
= 36.65%

June 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1008 + -0.0001 × 1,294 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.1916)
= $66.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1008 + -0.0001 × 1,294 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(3.8794)
= $48.39

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1008 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.1648)
= $64.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1008 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(3.8525)
= $47.11

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.83% per annum.
  • TEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $51.40 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.2451

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0537

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0537) – 1
= 23.96%

March 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2451 + -0.0007 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(4.2246)
= $68.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2451 + -0.0007 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(4.0098)
= $55.14

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2451 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(4.0498)
= $57.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2451 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0537)
= Exp(3.8350)
= $46.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.93% per annum.
  • TEX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.