Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)
Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures and markets specialty vehicles and bodies worldwide. The company is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.79% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $97.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.23 (2.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.04% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: October 10, 2024
a = 6.2513
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0365
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0365) – 1
= 15.72%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2513 + -0.0010 × 1,501 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.8697)
= $130.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2513 + -0.0010 × 1,501 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.7237)
= $112.59
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2513 + -0.0010 × 1,718 + 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.6594)
= $105.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2513 + -0.0010 × 1,718 – 2 × 0.0365)
= Exp(4.5135)
= $91.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.79% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $97.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.23 (2.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: December 12, 2024
a = 4.6546
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0454
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0454) – 1
= 19.90%
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6546 + 0.0000 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.7470)
= $115.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6546 + 0.0000 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.5655)
= $96.11
December 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6546 + 0.0000 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.7472)
= $115.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6546 + 0.0000 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0454)
= Exp(4.5657)
= $96.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.04% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.