Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)
Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures and markets specialty vehicles and bodies worldwide. The company is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.35% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $88.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.43 (1.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.78% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (1.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: October 10, 2024
a = 6.1314
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0372
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0372) – 1
= 16.05%
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1314 + -0.0010 × 1,409 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.8648)
= $129.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1314 + -0.0010 × 1,409 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.7160)
= $111.72
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1314 + -0.0010 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.6574)
= $105.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1314 + -0.0010 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0372)
= Exp(4.5085)
= $90.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.35% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $88.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.43 (1.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 30, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 11.4940
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -75.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.54%
January 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4940 + -0.0039 × 1,739 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.8064)
= $122.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4940 + -0.0039 × 1,739 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.6707)
= $106.77
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4940 + -0.0039 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.4839)
= $88.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4940 + -0.0039 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.3482)
= $77.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.78% per annum.
- OSK price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.88 (1.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.