Stock Price Trends

Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)

Clearwater Paper Corporation produces and sells private label bleached paperboard and tissue products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.27% per annum.
  • CLW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $26.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.62% per annum.
  • CLW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CLW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 11.8173

b = -0.0047

s = 0.1168

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0047) – 1
= -82.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1168) – 1
= 59.55%

May 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8173 + -0.0047 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(4.3024)
= $73.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8173 + -0.0047 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.8352)
= $46.30

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8173 + -0.0047 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.3972)
= $29.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.8173 + -0.0047 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(2.9300)
= $18.73

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.27% per annum.
  • CLW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $26.03 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 9, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 7.8927

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0416

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0416) – 1
= 18.13%

August 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8927 + -0.0026 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.5764)
= $35.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8927 + -0.0026 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.4098)
= $30.26

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8927 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.3134)
= $27.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8927 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(3.1468)
= $23.26

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.62% per annum.
  • CLW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

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