Certara Inc (CERT)
Certara Inc. provides software products and technology services to clients for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory filings, and market access. The company is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.91% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $14.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.51% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CERT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: August 6, 2024
a = 3.0554
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1646
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1646) – 1
= 93.14%
March 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0554 + -0.0002 × 446 + 2 × 0.1646)
= Exp(3.2838)
= $26.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0554 + -0.0002 × 446 – 2 × 0.1646)
= Exp(2.6256)
= $13.81
August 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0554 + -0.0002 × 1,334 + 2 × 0.1646)
= Exp(3.0833)
= $21.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0554 + -0.0002 × 1,334 – 2 × 0.1646)
= Exp(2.4251)
= $11.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.91% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $14.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2023
End date: April 10, 2025
a = 3.7160
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1371
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1371) – 1
= 73.07%
January 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7160 + -0.0008 × 775 + 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(3.3364)
= $28.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7160 + -0.0008 × 775 – 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(2.7879)
= $16.25
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7160 + -0.0008 × 1,581 + 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(2.6563)
= $14.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7160 + -0.0008 × 1,581 – 2 × 0.1371)
= Exp(2.1078)
= $8.23
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.51% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of April 25, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.11 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.