Certara Inc (CERT)
Certara Inc. provides software products and technology services to clients for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory filings, and market access. The company is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.78% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $13.40 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.97 (28.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.34% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.68 (5.31%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CERT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: December 6, 2024
a = 5.5665
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0748
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0748) – 1
= 34.90%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,155 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(3.1341)
= $22.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,155 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.8347)
= $17.03
December 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,456 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.4612)
= $11.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5665 + -0.0022 × 1,456 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.1618)
= $8.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.78% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $13.40 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.97 (28.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025
a = 1.9092
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0585
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0585) – 1
= 26.37%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9092 + 0.0003 × 1,363 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(2.4938)
= $12.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,363 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9092 + 0.0003 × 1,363 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(2.2597)
= $9.58
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9092 + 0.0003 × 1,508 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(2.5435)
= $12.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9092 + 0.0003 × 1,508 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(2.3095)
= $10.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.34% per annum.
- CERT price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.68 (5.31%).