Stock Price Trends

S&P Composite 1500 Index

The S&P Composite 1500 combines three leading indices, the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the S&P SmallCap 600, to cover approximately 90% of U.S. market capitalization. It is designed for investors seeking to replicate the performance of the U.S. equity market or benchmark against a representative universe of tradable stocks.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.28% per annum.
  • S&P Composite 1500 Index at the close of May 28, 2024 was 1,200.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.77% per annum.
  • S&P Composite 1500 Index at the close of May 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of S&P Composite 1500 Index
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: May 28, 2024

a = 6.1609

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0316

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.47%

September 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1609 + 0.0005 × 1,097 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(6.8039)
= 901.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1609 + 0.0005 × 1,097 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(6.6776)
= 794.39

May 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1609 + 0.0005 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(7.1290)
= 1,247.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1609 + 0.0005 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(7.0027)
= 1,099.56

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.28% per annum.
  • S&P Composite 1500 Index at the close of May 28, 2024 was 1,200.06 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: May 28, 2024

a = 5.4751

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0231

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.67%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4751 + 0.0010 × 1,462 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.9193)
= 1,011.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4751 + 0.0010 × 1,462 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.8270)
= 922.39

May 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4751 + 0.0010 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(7.1583)
= 1,284.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4751 + 0.0010 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(7.0660)
= 1,171.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.77% per annum.
  • S&P Composite 1500 Index at the close of May 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.