Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA)
The Dow Jones Utility Average aims to represent the stock performance of large, well-known U.S. companies within the utilities industry.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.84% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 28, 2024 was 921.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by 21.00 points (2.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 51.19% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA)
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 7.1555
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.75%
March 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1555 + -0.0003 × 895 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(7.0102)
= 1,107.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1555 + -0.0003 × 895 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(6.8468)
= 940.82
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1555 + -0.0003 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(6.8128)
= 909.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1555 + -0.0003 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(6.6494)
= 772.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.84% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 28, 2024 was 921.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by 21.00 points (2.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2024
End date: May 28, 2024
a = 4.9003
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.86%
February 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9003 + 0.0011 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.7490)
= 853.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9003 + 0.0011 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.6734)
= 791.05
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9003 + 0.0011 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.8770)
= 969.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9003 + 0.0011 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.8013)
= 899.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 51.19% per annum.
- Dow Jones Utility Average (DJUA) at the close of May 28, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.