Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
The Union Pacific Corporation (Union Pacific) is a publicly traded railroad holding company. It was incorporated in Utah in 1969 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. It is the parent company of the current, Delaware-registered, form of the Union Pacific Railroad.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.19% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $215.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.36 (10.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.71% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 24, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.16 (0.99%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 4.8739
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.17%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 879 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8739 + 0.0004 × 879 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.3145)
= $203.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 879 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8739 + 0.0004 × 879 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.1142)
= $166.37
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8739 + 0.0004 × 1,640 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.6092)
= $272.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8739 + 0.0004 × 1,640 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.19% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $215.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.36 (10.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.4925
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0371
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0371) – 1
= 16.00%
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4925 + 0.0000 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(5.5408)
= $254.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4925 + 0.0000 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(5.3924)
= $219.74
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4925 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(5.5311)
= $252.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4925 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0371)
= Exp(5.3827)
= $217.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.71% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 24, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.16 (0.99%).