Stock Price Trends

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

The Union Pacific Corporation (Union Pacific) is a publicly traded railroad holding company. It was incorporated in Utah in 1969 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. It is the parent company of the current, Delaware-registered, form of the Union Pacific Railroad.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.19% per annum.
  • UNP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $236.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.35 (0.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.94% per annum.
  • UNP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: October 23, 2024

a = 4.8638

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0501

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.17%

September 23, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8638 + 0.0004 × 905 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.3145)
= $203.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8638 + 0.0004 × 905 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.1142)
= $166.37

October 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8638 + 0.0004 × 1,666 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.6092)
= $272.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8638 + 0.0004 × 1,666 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.19% per annum.
  • UNP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $236.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.35 (0.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.4248

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0335

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.33%

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y931)
= Exp(a + b × X931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4248 + 0.0000 × 1,350 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.5262)
= $251.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y931)
= Exp(a + b × X931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,350 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4248 + 0.0000 × 1,350 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.3924)
= $219.72

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4248 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.5384)
= $254.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4248 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.4045)
= $222.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.94% per annum.
  • UNP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.