Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
The Union Pacific Corporation (Union Pacific) is a publicly traded railroad holding company. It was incorporated in Utah in 1969 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. It is the parent company of the current, Delaware-registered, form of the Union Pacific Railroad.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.19% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $238.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.94% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 4.8646
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.17%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y623)
= Exp(a + b × X623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8646 + 0.0004 × 903 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.3145)
= $203.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y623)
= Exp(a + b × X623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8646 + 0.0004 × 903 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.1142)
= $166.37
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8646 + 0.0004 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.6092)
= $272.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8646 + 0.0004 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.19% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $238.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 5.4249
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.28%
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4249 + 0.0000 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.5260)
= $251.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4249 + 0.0000 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.3926)
= $219.77
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4249 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.5382)
= $254.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4249 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(5.4048)
= $222.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.94% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.