Stock Price Trends

Titan International Inc (TWI)

Titan International, Inc. manufactures and sells wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components for off-road vehicles in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States region, the Middle East, Africa, Russia, and internationally. . The company is headquartered in Quincy, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.75% per annum.
  • TWI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $8.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.04% per annum.
  • TWI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 15, 2022
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 3.3292

b = -0.0007

s = 0.1639

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1639) – 1
= 92.62%

March 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y491)
= Exp(a + b × X491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3292 + -0.0007 × 712 + 2 × 0.1639)
= Exp(3.1535)
= $23.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y491)
= Exp(a + b × X491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3292 + -0.0007 × 712 – 2 × 0.1639)
= Exp(2.4979)
= $12.16

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3292 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1639)
= Exp(2.3665)
= $10.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3292 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1639)
= Exp(1.7109)
= $5.53

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.75% per annum.
  • TWI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $8.14 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 3, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = -0.4563

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0685

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0685) – 1
= 31.53%

October 3, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4563 + 0.0014 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(2.0466)
= $7.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4563 + 0.0014 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(1.7725)
= $5.89

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4563 + 0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(2.3054)
= $10.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4563 + 0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0685)
= Exp(2.0313)
= $7.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 69.04% per annum.
  • TWI price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

LNN
Lindsay Corporation