Stock Price Trends

RH, is a home furnishings retailer. The company is headquartered in Corte Madera, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.22% per annum.
  • RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $336.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $146.68 (77.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
  • RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 25, 2020
End date: June 16, 2023

a = 6.9756

b = -0.0012

s = 0.2220

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2220) – 1
= 143.00%

November 25, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 370 + 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(6.9794)
= $1,074.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 370 – 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(6.0915)
= $442.10

June 16, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 1,303 + 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(5.8697)
= $354.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 1,303 – 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(4.9818)
= $145.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.22% per annum.
  • RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $336.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $146.68 (77.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 5.5403

b = 0.0001

s = 0.1287

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1287) – 1
= 67.35%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 896 + 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.8550)
= $348.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 896 – 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.3400)
= $208.52

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.9144)
= $370.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.3994)
= $221.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
  • RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.