RH (RH)
RH, is a home furnishings retailer. The company is headquartered in Corte Madera, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.22% per annum.
- RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $336.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $146.68 (77.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2020
End date: June 16, 2023
a = 6.9756
b = -0.0012
s = 0.2220
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2220) – 1
= 143.00%
November 25, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 370 + 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(6.9794)
= $1,074.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y255)
= Exp(a + b × X255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 370 – 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(6.0915)
= $442.10
June 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 1,303 + 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(5.8697)
= $354.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9756 + -0.0012 × 1,303 – 2 × 0.2220)
= Exp(4.9818)
= $145.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.22% per annum.
- RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $336.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $146.68 (77.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.5403
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1287) – 1
= 67.35%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 896 + 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.8550)
= $348.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 896 – 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.3400)
= $208.52
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.9144)
= $370.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5403 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1287)
= Exp(5.3994)
= $221.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.36% per annum.
- RH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.