RH (RH)
RH, is a home furnishings retailer. The company is headquartered in Corte Madera, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.42% per annum.
- RH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $234.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.54 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.34% per annum.
- RH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 5.3761
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1479) – 1
= 80.71%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3761 + 0.0002 × 768 + 2 × 0.1479)
= Exp(5.8421)
= $344.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3761 + 0.0002 × 768 – 2 × 0.1479)
= Exp(5.2504)
= $190.64
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3761 + 0.0002 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.1479)
= Exp(6.0705)
= $432.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3761 + 0.0002 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.1479)
= Exp(5.4788)
= $239.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.42% per annum.
- RH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $234.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.54 (2.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 25.8773
b = -0.0112
s = 0.0823
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0112) – 1
= -98.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0823) – 1
= 38.98%
January 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(25.8773 + -0.0112 × 1,752 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(6.3606)
= $578.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(25.8773 + -0.0112 × 1,752 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(6.0315)
= $416.35
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(25.8773 + -0.0112 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(5.5406)
= $254.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(25.8773 + -0.0112 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(5.2115)
= $183.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.34% per annum.
- RH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.