NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH)
NMI Holdings, Inc. provides private home equity insurance services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.20% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $39.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.48% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.70 (1.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NMIH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 2.1546
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0569
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0569) – 1
= 25.55%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1546 + 0.0009 × 815 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(2.9745)
= $19.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1546 + 0.0009 × 815 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(2.7470)
= $15.60
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1546 + 0.0009 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.8149)
= $45.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1546 + 0.0009 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0569)
= Exp(3.5874)
= $36.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.20% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $39.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: January 23, 2025
a = 5.1990
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.65%
August 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1990 + -0.0009 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.7820)
= $43.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1990 + -0.0009 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.6718)
= $39.32
January 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1990 + -0.0009 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.6500)
= $38.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1990 + -0.0009 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.5397)
= $34.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.48% per annum.
- NMIH price at the close of January 27, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.70 (1.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.