Stock Price Trends

Newmont Goldcorp Corp (NEM)

Newmont Corporation, based in Greenwood Village, Colorado, United States, is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.22% per annum.
  • NEM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $48.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.52% per annum.
  • NEM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2023
End date: November 8, 2024

a = 2.4644

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1064

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.22%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1064) – 1
= 53.07%

August 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4644 + 0.0008 × 1,218 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(3.7088)
= $40.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4644 + 0.0008 × 1,218 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(3.2831)
= $26.66

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4644 + 0.0008 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.1018)
= $60.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4644 + 0.0008 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(3.6760)
= $39.49

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.22% per annum.
  • NEM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $48.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: March 12, 2025

a = 5.3699

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0927

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0927) – 1
= 44.87%

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3699 + -0.0009 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(4.1184)
= $61.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3699 + -0.0009 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(3.7477)
= $42.42

March 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3699 + -0.0009 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(3.8940)
= $49.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3699 + -0.0009 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0927)
= Exp(3.5233)
= $33.90

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.52% per annum.
  • NEM price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

RGLD
Royal Gold Inc