Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF)
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is engaged in investment banking and capital markets, asset management, and direct investment businesses in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 97.16% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $74.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.96 (1.31%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 146.81% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JEF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 11, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.8064
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 97.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.39%
October 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8064 + 0.0019 × 1,421 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.5462)
= $34.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8064 + 0.0019 × 1,421 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.3523)
= $28.57
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8064 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.2994)
= $73.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8064 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.1056)
= $60.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 97.16% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $74.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.96 (1.31%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -0.2626
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0390
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 146.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0390) – 1
= 16.88%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2626 + 0.0025 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(3.7856)
= $44.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2626 + 0.0025 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(3.6296)
= $37.70
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2626 + 0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.3351)
= $76.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2626 + 0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.1791)
= $65.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 146.81% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.