Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF)
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is engaged in investment banking and capital markets, asset management, and direct investment businesses in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.58% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $53.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.77 (20.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.17% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JEF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 1.6159
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0817
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0817) – 1
= 38.67%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6159 + 0.0015 × 1,078 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.4081)
= $30.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6159 + 0.0015 × 1,078 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(3.0811)
= $21.78
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6159 + 0.0015 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(4.4763)
= $87.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6159 + 0.0015 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0817)
= Exp(4.1493)
= $63.39
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.58% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $53.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.77 (20.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.4844
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.07%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4844 + -0.0030 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.5760)
= $97.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4844 + -0.0030 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.3208)
= $75.25
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4844 + -0.0030 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.1929)
= $66.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4844 + -0.0030 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.9377)
= $51.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.17% per annum.
- JEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.