Inter Parfums Inc (IPAR)
Inter Parfums, Inc., manufactures, markets and distributes a range of fragrances and fragrance-related products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.59% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $113.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.22% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IPAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.9603
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0661) – 1
= 30.26%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9603 + -0.0001 × 1,064 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.0161)
= $150.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9603 + -0.0001 × 1,064 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(4.7517)
= $115.78
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9603 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(4.9614)
= $142.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9603 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(4.6971)
= $109.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.59% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $113.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 15.0297
b = -0.0056
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -87.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.93%
February 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0297 + -0.0056 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(4.9732)
= $144.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0297 + -0.0056 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(4.9062)
= $135.12
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0297 + -0.0056 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(4.7759)
= $118.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.0297 + -0.0056 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(4.7089)
= $110.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.22% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.