Inter Parfums Inc (IPAR)
Inter Parfums, Inc., manufactures, markets and distributes a range of fragrances and fragrance-related products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.51% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $127.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.90% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IPAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.1416
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0608
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.55%
March 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1416 + -0.0002 × 1,196 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(5.0426)
= $154.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y822)
= Exp(a + b × X822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1416 + -0.0002 × 1,196 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.7993)
= $121.42
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1416 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.9264)
= $137.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1416 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.6831)
= $108.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.51% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $127.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.2299
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0465
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.46%
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2299 + 0.0003 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.8604)
= $129.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2299 + 0.0003 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.6743)
= $107.15
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2299 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.9299)
= $138.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2299 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.7437)
= $114.86
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.90% per annum.
- IPAR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.