Stock Price Trends

Hudson Pacific Properties Inc (HPP)

Hudson Pacific is a real estate investment trust with a portfolio of office and studio properties totaling nearly 19 million square feet, including development land.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.01% per annum.
  • HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $3.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.18 (79.83%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.71% per annum.
  • HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HPP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: April 28, 2022

a = 3.2552

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0439

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.18%

March 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 492 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.2451)
= $25.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 492 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.0696)
= $21.53

April 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y613)
= Exp(a + b × X613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 890 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.1659)
= $23.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y613)
= Exp(a + b × X613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 890 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.9904)
= $19.89

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.01% per annum.
  • HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $3.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.18 (79.83%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023

a = 4.4685

b = -0.0020

s = 0.1984

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1984) – 1
= 121.10%

March 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 492 + 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(3.8839)
= $48.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 492 – 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(3.0904)
= $21.99

November 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(1.9313)
= $6.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(1.1378)
= $3.12

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.71% per annum.
  • HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.