Hudson Pacific Properties Inc (HPP)
Hudson Pacific is a real estate investment trust with a portfolio of office and studio properties totaling nearly 19 million square feet, including development land.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.01% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $3.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.18 (79.83%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.71% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HPP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: April 28, 2022
a = 3.2552
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0439
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.18%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 492 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.2451)
= $25.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 492 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.0696)
= $21.53
April 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y613)
= Exp(a + b × X613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 890 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.1659)
= $23.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y613)
= Exp(a + b × X613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2552 + -0.0002 × 890 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(2.9904)
= $19.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.01% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $3.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.18 (79.83%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 4.4685
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1984
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1984) – 1
= 121.10%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 492 + 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(3.8839)
= $48.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 492 – 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(3.0904)
= $21.99
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 1,471 + 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(1.9313)
= $6.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4685 + -0.0020 × 1,471 – 2 × 0.1984)
= Exp(1.1378)
= $3.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.71% per annum.
- HPP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.