Helmerich and Payne Inc (HP)
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. provides drilling services and solutions for exploration and production companies. The company is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.56% per annum.
- HP price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $20.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.57 (18.16%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.32% per annum.
- HP price at the close of April 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.90 (4.21%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2022
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 3.8925
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1102
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1102) – 1
= 55.41%
March 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y474)
= Exp(a + b × X474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8925 + -0.0002 × 686 + 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.9448)
= $51.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y474)
= Exp(a + b × X474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8925 + -0.0002 × 686 – 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.5039)
= $33.24
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8925 + -0.0002 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.6695)
= $39.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8925 + -0.0002 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.1102)
= Exp(3.2286)
= $25.24
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.56% per annum.
- HP price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $20.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.57 (18.16%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: April 17, 2025
a = 5.2869
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.65%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2869 + -0.0011 × 1,417 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.9083)
= $49.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y977)
= Exp(a + b × X977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2869 + -0.0011 × 1,417 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.5186)
= $33.74
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2869 + -0.0011 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.4575)
= $31.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2869 + -0.0011 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.0678)
= $21.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.32% per annum.
- HP price at the close of April 17, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.90 (4.21%).