Hess Corporation (HES)
Hess Corporation (formerly Amerada Hess Corporation) is an American global independent energy company involved in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.64% per annum.
- HES price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $148.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.91% per annum.
- HES price at the close of November 22, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.10 (1.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2022
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 4.8506
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0616
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.92%
October 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8506 + 0.0001 × 1,060 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.0493)
= $155.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8506 + 0.0001 × 1,060 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.8031)
= $121.89
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8506 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.1038)
= $164.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8506 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.8576)
= $128.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.64% per annum.
- HES price at the close of November 22, 2024 was $148.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: November 22, 2024
a = 5.9476
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0436
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0436) – 1
= 19.04%
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9476 + -0.0006 × 1,571 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(5.1326)
= $169.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,081)
= Exp(a + b × X1,081 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9476 + -0.0006 × 1,571 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.9583)
= $142.36
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9476 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.9873)
= $146.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9476 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0436)
= Exp(4.8131)
= $123.11
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.91% per annum.
- HES price at the close of November 22, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.10 (1.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.