Stock Price Trends

Community Healthcare Trust Inc (CHCT)

Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated is a real estate investment trust that focuses on owning income-generating real estate primarily associated with the provision of outpatient healthcare services in our target submarkets across the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.38% per annum.
  • CHCT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 379.83% per annum.
  • CHCT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHCT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.7672

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0731

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0731) – 1
= 33.97%

January 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7672 + -0.0010 × 1,143 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.7341)
= $41.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7672 + -0.0010 × 1,143 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.4416)
= $31.24

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7672 + -0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(3.0294)
= $20.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7672 + -0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0731)
= Exp(2.7369)
= $15.44

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.38% per annum.
  • CHCT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.69 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 7, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -4.8849

b = 0.0043

s = 0.0241

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0043) – 1
= 379.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0241) – 1
= 10.12%

October 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8849 + 0.0043 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(2.8241)
= $16.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8849 + 0.0043 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(2.7277)
= $15.30

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8849 + 0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(3.0089)
= $20.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8849 + 0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0241)
= Exp(2.9125)
= $18.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 379.83% per annum.
  • CHCT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.